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未來十年世界石油化學工業發展趨勢和中國創新發展機遇 2015-06-18 22:34:31

摘要:本書主要對未來十年世界石化產業發展的新趨勢、未來十年中國石化產業面臨的挑戰、未來十年中國石化產業發展面臨的新機遇、中國石化產業未來十年發展的方向和重點、政策建議做了預測。

課題組名單

研究報告
一、未來十年世界石化產業發展的新趨勢/ 6
新趨勢之一:新興市場快速崛起推動全球石化消費市場持續增長/ 7

新趨勢之二:原料多元化進程加快推動全球能源原料結構發生重大變化/ 9
新趨勢之三:高端化、差異化深入發展推動產業持續向價值鏈高端延伸/ 13
新趨勢之四:安全環保約束日趨強化綠色低碳成為行業發展的新方向/ 16
新趨勢之五:全球經濟一體化與區域貿易便利化交織發展石化產品國際貿易的不確定性進一步增加/ 18
二、未來十年中國石化產業面臨的挑戰/ 21
(一)產業層次不高大宗基礎性產品過剩矛盾突出/ 22

(二)創新體系不完善技術創新能力亟待提升/ 23
(三)資源約束進一步加大生產要素成本攀升/ 24
(四)安全環保壓力持續增大行業形象亟需改進/ 25
(五)市場體制機制不完善政府宏觀管理存在越位、缺位、不到位現象/ 26
三、未來十年中國石化產業發展面臨的新機遇/ 28
(一)中國人口持續增長消費水平不斷提高/ 29
(二)城鎮化深入推進拉動中國內需市場持續優化升級/ 29
(三)工業化進程加快為化工材料和產品創造了新的更大發展
空間/ 30
(四)農業現代化推動農業發展方式加快轉變為農藥、化肥等化工產業創造了新的發展空間/ 31
(五)全面深化經濟體制改革為石化產業發展注入了新的動力和活力/ 32
(六)全球經濟一體化深入推進為中國石化產業提供了更加廣闊的國際發展空間/ 32
四、中國石化產業未來十年發展的方向和重點/ 34
(一)積極推進技術創新體系建設提高企業的技術創新能力/ 35

(二)推進大宗石化產品產業優化升級進一步提高產業競爭優勢/ 37
(三)大力培育新興產業努力推進石化產業的高端化、差異化和綠色發展/ 40
(四)著眼于前沿技術開展研發做好石化產業可持續發展的技術儲備/ 46
五、政策建議/ 49
(一)營造更加公平公正的市場環境/ 50

(二)增加政策的透明度及穩定性/ 51
(三)加強法制法規的執行力度/ 52
(四)努力提升化工行業社會形象/ 52
(五)加強知識產權保護/ 53
(六)發揮行業協會的重要作用/ 54

訪談輯要

Ⅰ.巴斯夫歐洲公司執行董事會主席博凱慈博士(Kurt Bock)、陶氏化學公司董事長兼首席執行官利偉誠(Andrew Liveris)重要觀點輯要/ 59
Ⅱ.緊跟大趨勢迎接未來十年的中國機遇——拜耳材料科技中國區兼亞太區總裁苗伯樂(Wolfgang Miebach)觀點輯要/ 62
Ⅲ.變革中尋求更大的競爭力——塞拉尼斯亞洲事務高級副總裁歐博禮(Mark Oberle)觀點輯要/ 68
Ⅳ.創新戰略驅動可持續增長——贏創首席創新官聶佩德(Peter Nagler)博士,贏創高級副總裁、涂料與添加劑業務部亞太區總經理洪中博士觀點輯要/ 73
Ⅴ.各方協力致力于產業結構優化——日本石油化學工業化解產能過剩的對策和經驗/ 84
Ⅵ.專注創新與卓越運營——索爾維投資有限公司大中華區總裁朱銘岳觀點輯要/ 90
Ⅶ.化工貿易,可以更開放——陶氏化學公司國際政府事務總監彭寧科觀點輯要/ 97
Ⅷ.陶氏化學的轉型之路/ 101



Research Group List

Research Report

1.New Trend of the Global Petroleum & Chemical Industry in the Next 10 Years/ 6

Trend No.1:The rapid rise of emerging markets will encourage the continued rapid growth of the global petroleum & chemical consumer market/ 7
Trend No.2:The diversification of raw materials will accelerate,promoting global energy and raw materials structures to change significantly/ 9
Trend No.3:Highend and differentiated developments will deepen,extending the industry to the highend value chain continuously/ 12
Trend No.4:The increasing strictness of safety and environmental constraints will make green lowcarbon a new direction for the industry development/ 14
Trend No.5:Intertwined development of global economic integration and regional trade facilitation will increase the uncertainty of petroleum & chemical products in international trade/ 16

2.Challenges to China’s Petroleum & Chemical Industry in the Next 10 Years/ 18

(A)A relatively low industrial level and outstanding surplus as a contradiction to the bulk of basic products/ 19
(B)An imperfect innovation system and the urgent need to enhance the capacity for technological innovation/ 20
(C)Further aggravated resource constraints and the increasing costs of production factors/ 21
(D)The continuously increasing pressures of safety and environmental responsibility,together with the urgent need to improve the industry’s image/ 22
(E)An imperfect market institutional mechanism and improper macromanagement by the government/ 23

3.New Opportunities of China’s Petroleum & Chemical Industry in the Next 10 Years/ 24

(A)China’s population will continue to grow,and the consumption level will constantly improve/ 25
(B)Urbanization will be further promoted,stimulating China’s domesticdemand market to continue optimizing and upgrading/ 25
(C)The process of industrialization will accelerate,providing a larger platform for the development of chemical materials and products/ 26
(D)Agricultural modernization will accelerate the transformation of the agricultural development mode,creating a new development space for pesticides,fertilizers and other chemical industry products/ 27
(E)Economic reform will deepen comprehensively,injecting new impetus and vigor into the petroleum & chemical industry’s development/ 28
(F)Global economic integration will be further promoted,providing a broader international development space for China’s petroleum & chemical industry/ 28

4.The Development Direction and Priority of China’s Petroleum & Chemical Industry in the Next 10 Years/ 30

(A)Actively promote the system of technological innovation and improve the technological innovation capacity of enterprises/ 31
(B)Promote the optimization and upgrading of the bulk of petroleum & chemical products,and spur the industry to further enhance industrial competitiveness/ 32
(C)Cultivate new industries in order to promote highend,differentiated, green development of the petroleum & chemical industry/ 35
(D)Focus on cuttingedge technology to prepare for the sustainable development of the petroleum & chemical industry/ 40

5.Policy Recommendations/ 42

(A)Create a fair and equitable market environment/ 43
(B)Increase the transparency and stability of policy/ 44
(C)Strengthen the enforcement of laws and regulations/ 44
(D)Endeavor to improve the social image of the chemical industry/ 45
(E)Strengthen the protection of intellectual property/ 46
(F)Make good use of industry associations/ 46

Interview Summaries

Ⅰ.Viewpoints Summary of Kurt Bock,Chairman of Executive Directors Board of BASF SE, and Andrew Liveris,Chairman and CEO of Dow Chemical Company/ 51
Ⅱ.BMS China Strategy:Follow Current Trends to Grasp Opportunities in Next Decade—Viewpoints Summary of Wolfgang Miebach,President of Bayer MaterialScience China/APAC/ 54
Ⅲ.Seeking for greater competitiveness in innovation—Viewpoints Summary of Mark Oberle,Senior Vice President of Celanese/ 61
Ⅳ.Sustainable Growth Through Strategic Innovation—Viewpoints Summary of Dr.Peter Nagler,Chief Innovation Officer of Evonik Industries AG,and Dr.Hong Zhong,Senior Vice President & General Manager, Coatings & Additives, Asia Pacific, Evonik Industries/ 64
Ⅴ.Strategies and Experiences of Japanese Petrochemical Industry to Resolve Overcapacity/ 72
Ⅵ.Focusing on Innovation and Operational Excellence—Viewpoints Summary of Michael Zhu, Great China Country General Manager of Solvay/ 77
Ⅶ.Further Liberalization for Chemical Trade—Viewpoints Summary of Peng Ningke, Director, International Government Affairs of Dow Chemical/ 82
Ⅷ.Dow Chemical,a Journey of Transformation/ 85

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